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Episode 1361: A Generous Tip
Date April 10, 2019 Summary Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller banter about Willians Astudillo’s first strikeout of the season (and whether strike three should have been a foul ball), then answer listener emails about Alex Verdugo and whether it’s better to play full-time in Triple-A or part-time in the majors, what baseball would be like if players had a finite number of career or seasonal plate appearances, Ichiro Suzuki with different hitting mechanics, the optimal way to distribute WAR across a roster, and whether pitchers have uneven arms, plus a Stat Blast about an ill-advised managerial move with the bases loaded. Topics * Alex Verdugo * Playing full-time in the minors or part-time in the majors * If player careers had a finite number of plate appearances * Ichiro Suzuki with different hitting mechanics * How to best distribute WAR across a team * Why pitchers don't have uneven arms * Starting runners with the bases loaded and one out Intro The Impressions, "You Must Believe Me" Outro The Nields, "I Still Believe in My Friends" Banter * Willians Astudillo struck out for the first time this season. * Ben and Sam discuss whether the third strike should have actually been a foul tip Email Questions * Keith: "Which is more valuable to Alex Verdugo this season: exactly 1 guaranteed at-bat per game with the MLB Dodgers (he never starts a game, but he can play in the field as a defensive replacement, as long as he does not come to bat more than once) or another full season with the OKC Dodgers playing every single inning of every game? My guess is that being with the big league club is better, giving him exposure to better pitchers and coaching, while also learning about the culture of playing in the majors. Let's assume that either way he is a full-time major league starter in 2020. Which approach makes him better in 2020?" * Adam: "When I was first watching baseball as a child I briefly thought that when the commentators said a batter was "retired" (in the context of making an out) that the player was now forced to retire from baseball, I guess because he made an out too many times. If baseball actually worked this way, where players would be forced to retire after making some number of outs, what is the smallest that this number could be without messing up the game? How quickly would the league collapse due to lack of hitting talent if the number were something like 1000?" * Mike (Springfield, VA): "I wanted to ask you a question about Ichiro Suzuki. If Ichiro came into the league today and was taught to hit the way that most teachers seem to hit, to lift the ball with a higher launch angle, would he have been as successful? Ichiro hit the ball on the ground a lot with a chopping motion, perhaps reminiscent of Ty Cobb. I wonder if modern techniques would have taken that away from him, and hurt his career." * Mike: "Baseball god has given you an expansion team and 35 WAR to distribute across your team of players that appear suddenly on your roster. How do you distribute your WAR to win the World Series? Does everyone become a slightly positive player or do you build a scrubs and stars team with one player that is better than two Mike Trouts? Is there historical precedence to build teams in a specific way, or is this just personal preference on team building?" * Jeff Snider: "Jayson Stark's column today talking about Trout's extension and its impact on Mookie Betts includes this: "There’s an interesting theory in the game these days. It suggests that the FanGraphs formula that converts Wins Above Replacement to dollars — more than $8 million per win these days — isn’t totally accurate, at least not as it applies to the stars. "Stars, you see, are worth more than that. A “10-win player” like Mike Trout is way more valuable than two “five-win players,” for example because he uses up only one roster spot to supply you with those 10 wins. And never forget there are a limited number of those roster spots. So after Trout has finished doing his thing, you still have 24 spots left." quote That's not really new information, I don't think, and it makes perfect sense. Getting 10 wins out of one roster spot leaves you 24 other spots. Getting 10 wins out of two spots leaves you 23. Simple math. But what if you knew you were only getting X number of wins out of your lineup. It might not matter if that number was 10, because the team is gonna suck whether that's one 10-win guy and eight replacement-level guys or nine 1.1-win players. But let's say the number is 40? Is it safe to say that you'd rather have a lineup of nine 4.5-win players than one guy who was somehow worth 40 wins and eight replacement players? Maybe the natural boundaries of what is possible for one player make this point semi-moot. How good would a team with three 13-win players and six replacement players be? Or what if we drop down to 25 WAR total. At that point, would you rather have a 10-win guy and eight guys who are barely good enough to start, or a lineup full of 3-win players? Obviously, teams don't know in advance what their overall WAR will be and they can't/don't build teams this way. But in theory, which is a better distribution of WAR?" * Sean: "Why don't pitchers get the same sort of uneven arms that tennis players do (If you're unfamiliar with this phenomenon, I would recommend a google image search)? Is it the nature of pitching being a whole-body activity? It still feels like they would use their pitching arm significantly more than non-pitching arm, right?" Stat Blast * There was one instance of a team trying to send all the runners with the bases loaded with 1 out. * It was Don Zimmer’s Cubs in the 11th inning against Randy Meyers with a full count. Notes * Ben and Sam think it would be nearly impossible to build a World Series winner with 35 WAR. * In a follow-up to Episode 1360, listeners declared the winner to be Meg, followed by Ben and Sam. Links * Episode 1361: A Generous Tip * Willians Astudillo strikeout survey * Should Ichiro Have Hit Homers? by Ben Lindbergh * What Really Happens When a Baseball Player Turns 18 by Russell Carleton * Hang Up and Listen: The Make America Cheat Again Edition Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes